Missionary Attrition
Why is it so hard to get a good idea of what attrition really is?
I just spoke at a missions conference on current trends in missions. During that session, I asked the room, “What is the average length of service for a missionary?” The answers were about the same when I have done this before. For some reason, most people believe that the average missionary serves for 4 years or less.
Now, before I go further, I know that how you define “missionary” is a mixed bag. I did not take the time to define it to this group, yet they understood that I meant, “missionaries that intended to serve as long-termers.” Let’s dispense of the definition problem and agree that in this short post, I am talking about people whose intention is to serve as long-term or career missionaries.
I usually follow this question of longevity up with another question, “Is the length of service getting shorter?” and two hands out of about 100 went up. That is also in alignment with feedback I have received from other groups.
This non-scientific research backs up what I have heard in many discussions through the years regarding missionary length of service. This narrative is that missionaries are serving for very short times, and this timeframe is getting shorter.
Determining the average length of service is far more difficult than one might think. There are many reasons for this:
Sending organizations count these numbers in different ways. Even determining who goes on the list and who does not is difficult.
The only folks that gather this data are either one-off research projects or Missio Nexus, the association I lead. Very few organizations give us data even though we ask for it. If you know of others doing this sort of research, let us know in the comments.
People that have their service cut short for negative reasons are not quick to have their failure reported as such. There are usually different conclusions about why somebody leaves the field (one from the person leaving, one from their team, one from their church, and so on).
Shifting forms of missionary service, including expectations about length of service, workplace missions, and other new forms of sending, make categorization difficult.
Mission agencies use the word “attrition” to describe missionaries leaving “the field.” They will often describe two categories, “good attrition” and “bad attrition.” The first refers to people leaving because they retired (expected end of service), fulfilled their goals, were only planning on going for X number of years, etc. In other words, this sort of attrition should be expected. Bad attrition happens when there is a problem. It might be funding issues, family related, inability to learn a language, or any other negative reason that cuts service short. This type of attrition is also called “preventable attrition,” and a lot of work is done to prevent it.
Preventable attrition gets the most attention in missionary agencies. The thinking, of course, is that if we can improve our missionary selection process, the spiritual vitality of the missionary, the team they serve on, leadership, and supporting systems, the missionary will serve for longer.
Does it work? I think so. I will share my experience from one confidential study. Missionaries self-reported on job satisfaction. Positive satisfaction correlated to the team having a written plan. In fact, it was enough of a connection to prove some element of causation, which has a much higher statistical standard. Teams with plans were longer serving teams.
So, back to our question, “What is the average number of years a missionary serves?” The 2003 REMAP survey cited 12 years. That is an old survey, and if I recall correctly (you can correct me in the comments if you want to) REMAP II did not provide a similar statistic.
I have been estimating that the number is closer to just over 7 years (that is what I said today in my talk). I base this on research I have seen done by a couple larger agencies.
However, now I am going repent of that claim, and go with 12 years from now on.
In 2022, we (Missio Nexus) conducted a staff research project which included attrition numbers. The total attrition rate reported by organizations was 5% - closely matching the rate noted in REMAP that drove the conclusion of a 12-year average length of service. So, it is probably longer than 7 years and much closer to what REMAP had come up over 20 years ago.
Remember that attrition may not include people leaving the field for “good” reasons, like retirement. Since so many field missionaries are Boomers in the larger, legacy agencies, I am assuming that contraction of these agencies is not reflected in attrition numbers. This is “unpreventable attrition” and thus is not included in the 5%.
All said, I am of the opinion now that 12 years is a better estimate of the average number of years that a missionary serves, and that number has remained relatively stable over the past two decades.