Reading Weak Signals
Ministry signals are hard to see because they involve culture
In my book, The Innovation Crisis, I briefly mention the topic of “weak signals.” These are subtle signs that change is on the way. If one observes these signs, they can better prepare for the coming change. It is a powerful concept but a difficult art to practice, particularly for ministry leaders. Ministry leaders are not in competition with each other for market share. They are in competition with the fallen aspects of culture. This makes reading weak signals much more difficult than watching trend lines in business, which tend to be more finite and focused.
I have been asked what one might do to better exercise the “weak signal muscle” and improve one’s ability to see weak signals before the change fully manifests itself. Here are a few things one might consider doing to improve.
Develop wide reading habits. In my ebook, Reading in 360 Degrees, I describe how novels, non-fiction, biographies, and daily reading combine to create a well-rounded reading habit. One cannot read only short form, Internet material and expect to have deep exposure to ideas.
Develop wide social habits. We cannot expect to understand the culture well and cloister ourselves into a neat little Christian community. We have to be out there, mixing it up with others who think differently about things. I find ministry leaders particularly bad at this. It is simply too easy to let our friendship circles collapse into homogenized sameness.
Be on the lookout for “analogous change.” Change in one sector of the culture will often be copied in another. The wholesale rejection of leaders as icons in our larger society is mirrored in church leadership today. The move to “digital everything” affects all aspects of ministry life. The shift toward globalization in the world results in global Evangelicalism (something that is becoming undone right now, by the way).
Do research and read research. Like reading habits, read research outside of your direct sphere. Infographics are great, but they are story oriented. Real research lets the data tell the story, is more subtle, and has exceptions to the rule embedded within it.
Create your own newsfeed. Do not rely on big tech to send headlines to you that are prescreened. Use a link collector (I use Wallabag on a self-hosted server) to gather articles that you will later read slowly for understanding.
Reflect on history and its impact on our current situation. For example, personal support raising has a history. Today, people are down on it as institutionalized discrimination, or a limit to greater involvement in the Great Commission. It came about to combat both of those things. Understanding that history has helped me to recast it in a different way, seeing it for the innovation it was, but also to question if that same need exists today.
Look for outliers, or things that are against the current tide. Remember that just a few of the strange things of today will become normal in the future. Can we identify those things that will be on that very short list? They all start out as outliers.
Most of these items are about data collection. Reading weak signals involves identification of the important tidbits. This is not something easily taught, but the first step is to have a large trove of information to draw from.